The Prison of Good Intentions
How Past Success Constrains the Future
Have you ever wondered if yesterday's good decisions are forcing us into problematic paths today? I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
After a decade of working with African startups – deploying millions of Dollars in capital and supporting entrepreneurs, I've noticed something troubling: many of our celebrated "best practices" have locked us into patterns that are now holding us back.
What Are Path Dependent Feedback Loops?
Simply put, path dependency means past choices limit future options. What makes it powerful are the feedback loops – cycles that reinforce these limitations with each turn.
In African business, these aren't just abstract concepts now, they are real barriers I've watched entrepreneurs struggle against daily.
Three Traps We've Created Ourselves
1. The Tech Hub Mirage
We celebrated when startups clustered in Lagos, Nairobi, and Cape Town. But look at what's happened:
Money flows to these cities → talent follows → more startups launch there → more success stories emerge → even more money flows in.
A founder solving critical healthcare problems in Lusaka faces nearly impossible odds compared to a mediocre idea in Lagos – not because their solution is worse, but because we've created a system that reinforces geographic inequality.
Ask yourself: Are we actually building pan-African innovation, or just four/five city-states of privilege surrounded by innovation deserts?
2. The Foreign Funding Trap
When the first Africa-focused VC funds launched, copying Silicon Valley's playbook seemed smart. Now I see the damage.
We imported term sheets, metrics, and growth expectations wholesale without questioning their fit. The result? Companies chasing unsustainable growth because "that's what raises the next round."
I've sat in pitch meetings where founders with solid, profitable business models were told they weren't "thinking big enough." I've watched promising companies pivot from sustainable revenue to high-burn models just to please investors – and then collapse when funding dried up.
Ask yourself: Have we forced African startups to adopt business models that require never-ending funding rounds just to survive?
3. The Talent Concentration Problem
The tech training programs we celebrate often have unintended consequences. The most talented people from secondary markets gained visibility through these programs – and then promptly relocated to Lagos, Nairobi, Cairo or Cape Town. Programs designed to create opportunity everywhere ended up accelerating the brain drain.
Ask yourself: Are our capacity-building efforts actually widening the gap between primary and secondary markets?
Breaking Free From These Traps
These patterns weren't created with bad intentions. But recognizing them lets us make different choices:
1. Rethink Where We Put Money
What if funds committed to deploying at least 30% of capital outside the big five markets? What if LPs demanded geographic diversity alongside financial returns?
At Launch Africa, we've seen remarkable companies in markets others ignore. But it takes deliberate effort to overcome the gravitational pull of established hubs.
2. Design Funding For African Realities
Standard VC equity isn't right for every business, yet we force this template on all companies. Revenue-based financing, longer time horizons, and different growth metrics could create healthier businesses.
The real innovation needed isn't just in technology – it's in how we fund it.
3. Build Distributed Knowledge Networks
We need to design programs that strengthen regional ecosystems rather than creating centralized networks that inevitably pull talent to the same few cities.
This means deliberate mentorship matching, regional support structures, and incentives for remaining in secondary markets.
Moving Forward
Path dependency isn't fate. It's just momentum we've created with past decisions. We can change direction.
The next wave of African innovation will come from those willing to question what we've built so far. Not to tear it down, but to recognize its limitations and build something better.
The future belongs to those who break free from yesterday's constraints – even the ones created with the best of intentions.
The prison of good intentions is still a prison. It's time to break free.