The Pattern Trap: When Our Brain's Shortcuts Lead Us Astray

Correlation does not always mean Causation

I've been thinking deeply about how our minds process information and make decisions. What fascinates me is not just how easily we draw patterns in our mind, but how our natural pattern-seeking nature can mislead us.

Human beings have always survived on patterns, it helps us navigate the world, it helps us avoid sticky situations and it helps us find meaning in everything.

While it can be advantageous, it also can be the opposite. Because patterns exist doesn’t mean they tell us the full story. And because these patterns our minds create may differ from the patterns others see in their minds-eye, we have to be careful in how we derive conclusions from them.

The Seductive Power of Recognition

Picture this: You're in a meeting, and someone presents a business challenge that feels familiar. Your mind immediately jumps to a previous solution that worked or one that failed woefully.

But wait... is this really the same situation? Or are we seeing these patterns even where meaningful differences exist?

I give this example because my wife has called me out on this before lol.

Here’s another example: A venture capitalist sits across from a founder. The founder is quiet, methodical, presenting realistic projections. The investor's mind immediately pattern-matches: "This founder lacks ambition." But is this pattern recognition or unconscious bias?

In a podcast interview with Kola Aina, founding partner at Ventures Platform, he shares insights from his experience.: "Very early on, I was very strong on founders that had shown people ambition... I remember one particular deal where we were engaging with a founder who was slightly more subdued, slightly more realistic and had a more progressive approach... I had a bias towards founders that weren't as aggressive." This revelation led him to question his own pattern-matching instincts.

You can catch that conversation here: https://pod.link/the-grinders-table/episode/d9d874c08b97f4e944e78b5e95608ad6

The Echo Chamber of Experience

"Prod data long enough, and it will tell you what you want to hear." This insight from a former colleague has haunted my decision-making process.

Consider performance reviews - how often do we unconsciously seek evidence that supports our initial impressions of a team member? For example, a quiet team member may be labelled as "disengaged," when in reality, they could be deeply focused and processing information in a way that differs from more outspoken colleagues.

Breaking Free from Mental Shortcuts

I'm increasingly convinced that the quality of our decisions depends on our ability to question our own pattern recognition.

Here's what I'm learning to break free every day:

1. Question the Familiar: When something feels immediately familiar, that's precisely when we should pause. Ask yourself - "What makes this situation truly unique?" This simple question can help you avoid applying outdated solutions to new challenges.

2. Explore Multiple Narratives: For every pattern you recognise, try to think of at least two alternative explanations. When a product isn't selling, is it really a marketing/branding issue (the familiar pattern), or could it be about product-market fit, or perhaps even timing?

3. Seek Pattern Disruptors: Actively look for examples that break your perceived patterns. If you believe remote teams can't be as productive as in-office ones, find and study cases that contradict this assumption.

The Way Forward

The real skill isn't in pattern recognition - we do that automatically. The skill lies in pattern interrogation. Here's a framework I'm developing:

• First Reaction: "This reminds me of..."

• Pause Point: "But what might make this different?"

• Deep Dive: "What assumptions am I making?"

• Alternative View: "How else could I interpret this?"

• Action Check: "What if my pattern recognition is wrong?"

Beyond Business

I recognise that I used ‘business’ examples earlier. But this isn't just about business decisions. Think about how pattern recognition affects hiring choices, product development, or even personal relationships. Are we missing opportunities because they don't fit our expected patterns? Are we solving the wrong problems because we're applying familiar solutions to unfamiliar challenges?

The most valuable insights often come not from confirming patterns, but from understanding where and why they break down.