The Authority Fallacy
Why blindly following authority might be your biggest blind spot
Over the past few weeks, I've been thinking about cognitive biases, particularly how we handle authority, especially authority that we deem richer, more experienced, and more connected than us. It's fascinating, really—this almost reflexive deference to perceived expertise is wildly shaping the world and, in my sphere of influence, both investment decisions and startup trajectories.
The Valley Gospel Problem
Look, we've all been there. I see it daily in our startup ecosystem - this near-religious adherence to Silicon Valley frameworks, I’m not saying they don’t work because they do for ‘their’ market. Founders walk into pitch meetings armed with Stanford case studies and YC playbooks, treating them as gospel rather than guidelines. But here's the thing - when did we collectively decide that what works in San Francisco automatically translates to Nairobi?
I've reviewed thousands of pitch decks across Africa. The pattern is clear: "We're the Uber for X," "Our TAM is $50B based on US market research," "According to ‘prominent’ VC..." Wait. Back up a bit. Are you/we actually pressure-testing these assumptions against our market realities and context?
The Echo Chamber Effect
This authority bias isn't just a startup problem - it's systemic. It's in how investment theses spread through our ecosystem without proper contextualization. It's in how quickly we amplify "thought leadership" on Tech Twitter without questioning underlying assumptions. One prominent figure makes a market prediction or perspective, and suddenly it's referenced in every pitch deck that crosses my desk or on every panel. It's in how a popular personality makes derogatory comments and people normalise it.
Breaking the Pattern
After deploying capital across multiple African markets, as well as working with people across the world to execute projects, I've learned to approach authority differently. Here's what works:
Evidence as well as Expertise
When someone makes a market claim, my first response is simple: "Show me the data." Not the US proxy data. Not the Asian parallel. Show me relevant, contextual evidence that this works in our markets or clime.
Context Is Everything
A fintech play that's crushing it in Kenya might completely miss the mark in Senegal. The key isn't in copying success stories - it's in understanding the specific market conditions that made that success possible and contextualizing it.
Multiple Lenses
Some of our best investment decisions came from triangulating multiple perspectives, especially when they conflicted. The real insights often emerge from these tensions, not from single sources of "truth."
The Authority Paradox
Here's what's interesting: the most valuable voices in our ecosystem aren't those making definitive pronouncements. They're the ones asking better questions, challenging assumptions, and inviting discourse.
On the flip side, being challenged is not always fun though, because sometimes it makes you question your experience or belief. I know this because I married someone who loves to challenge assumptions. However, I’ve been better off for it.
Maybe that's the real play here. Not rejecting authority outright, but developing a more nuanced relationship with it. In life, the real edge isn't in having all the answers. It's in knowing which questions to ask next.